Led by Kyle Armour (UW Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences) and Aaron Donohoe (UW Polar Science Center/Applied Physics Laboratory).
The annual University of Washington Program on Climate Change Summer Institute took place September 12-14, 2018, in Friday Harbor, WA. The topic was “Source of Uncertainty in Long-Term Climate Projections” and brought together climate scientists with backgrounds ranging from physical climatology to economics to human behavior and statistics. The following questions provided motivation:
- Can we quantify uncertainty in global and regional climate change projections? (e.g., in the spatial structure of warming and hydrologic cycle changes)
- What are the primary sources of climate change uncertainty? (e.g., from emissions, radiative feedbacks, ocean circulation, carbon cycle feedbacks, etc.)
- What are the major uncertainties in climate change impacts?
- What are our prospects for better quantifying and/or narrowing climate change uncertainties?
- How should decisions be made and climate change be communicated in light of recalcitrant uncertainties?
Two paper discussions were scheduled and strongly recommended for participating students and postdocs:
- Paper Discussion #1 (August 22, 2018— Aaron will lead): Climate feedbacks and uncertainty. Readings: First 12 pages of Roe (2009), and Zelinka et al (2017)
- Paper Discussion #2 (August 29, 2018 — Aaron and Kyle will lead): Economic costs of climate change. Readings: Wagner and Zeckhauser (2017) and Hsiang et al (2017)
- Paper Discussion #3 (September 5, 2018— Kyle will lead): Uncertainty in carbon cycle feedbacks. Readings: Bonan and Doney (2018) and Lovenduski and Bonan (2017)
(updated November 2018)