Recent research conducted by Dr. Curtis Deutsch and Postdoctoral Research Associate Justin Penn reveal a bleak impending future for ocean biodiversity. Their research, which synthesizes projections of climate change and physiological data of marine species to predict how creatures will be affected by anthropogenic habitat change, reveals that extinctions from modern emissions have the potential to rival the severity of historic mass extinctions under high-emission scenarios. 

The source of the rapid annual retreat of Antarctic sea ice has long eluded scientists. However, according to a new study co-authored by former Program on Climate Change Director and current  Atmospheric Sciences Chair Cecilia Bitz, the puzzling long-term actions of Antarctic sea ice may have simply been obscuring a straightforward solution: the fast yearly retreat is simply explained by seasonal solar radiation. 

Researchers at the University of Arizona have recreated the last 24,000 years of Earth’s climate, dating back to the last ice age, using a method developed by co-author Gregory Hakim, professor in UW’s Atmospheric Sciences Department. Hakim’s strategy is a form of data assimilation and involves combining the strengths of both observational data from paleoclimate proxies and computer models of climate to best reconstruct past temperatures. 

Cecilia Bitz, Chair of Atmospheric Sciences and former PCC Director, and Shuyi Chen, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences and speaker at the 2020 PCC Summer Institute, have received honors from the American Meteorological Society (AMS) for their contributions to the world of ocean, atmosphere, and climate research. Bitz received the Syukuro Manabe Climate Research Award which AMS presents to "individuals who have made outstanding contributions to the fundamental understanding of Earth’s climate system," and Chen was awarded the Sverdrup Gold Medal for "outstanding contributions to the scientific knowledge of interactions between the oceans and the atmosphere, interactions between the oceans and the cryosphere, or ocean biogeochemistry." Join us in offering congratulations to both of these wonderful members of the PCC community!

The Arctic Ocean's "Last Ice Area" may be at risk according to a recent UW study led by scientists from the Polar Science Center at the Applied Physics Lab (APL), including Kristin Laidre (SAFS) and Mike Steele (APL). The "Last Ice Area," located north of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is so named due to its potential to sustain the populations of ice-dependent species when the surrounding region is rendered uninhabitable, but this research asserts that some parts of the area are already experiencing a decline in summer sea ice. The team's research focused on ice in the Wandel Sea during the August of 2020, where sea ice has historically been thick and long-lasting. However, satellite images showed that the region experienced a record low 50% ice coverage on August 14, 2020. Using satellite data and sea ice models, the team found that 80% of the record low ice coverage could be accounted for due to weather-related factors including disruptive winds, but the remaining 20% was a result of the thinning of sea ice as a result of global warming. Critically, this melting occurred in spite of the presence of thick, aged sea ice, not without it, dispelling hopes that the reformation of older, thicker ice would significantly mediate the cycle of warming oceans leading to thinner ice. This data from the Wandel Sea cannot be immediately generalized to the entire "Last Ice Area," but if these trends are reflected across the region, the many creatures that depend on the presence of ice, including polar bears and walrus, will be greatly at risk.

Recent research led by Ian Joughin of the UW's Applied Physics Laboratory has shown that the ice shelf responsible for holding back one of the fastest-moving Antarctic glaciers is imploding, the culmination of decades of warming and stress. The ice shelf supports the Pine Island Glacier, which contains around 180 trillion tons of ice, an amount that could lead to 1.6 feet of sea level rise if it were allowed to completely flow into the ocean. The glacier's advance is already responsible for raising the global sea level by one-sixth of a millimeter per year, a rate equivalent to two-thirds of an inch per century, and one that is expected to increase in coming years. In the past, the glacier's acceleration was driven by warm ocean currents melting the undersides of the ice shelves supporting it, but Joughin and his team have noticed a different process in recent years, which is not directly caused by ocean warming. Instead, studying data from 2017-2020, the team observed that the glacier's previous acceleration had caused the ice shelf to rip itself apart. This phenomenon was responsible for the majority of the glacier's acceleration in recent years. However, the future of Pine Island is still unclear. Currently, the glacier's acceleration is not catastrophic, but if the Pine Island Ice Shelf is lost in upcoming decades, as seems possible, the rapid changes could lead to drastic, irreversible consequences felt all across the globe.