A new study out by Angie Pendergrass, a project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), along with a team of researchers, gives us a clue about what to expect in a warmer world. Their findings suggest that precipitation variability will increase into the future whether one is looking at a day-to-day, year-to-year, or decade-to-decade time scale. On top of this, the group demonstrated that precipitation variability will increase substantially over roughly two-thirds of the world’s land areas by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue at full strength.

The team used three global climate model ensembles to simulate variability. Global climate models are inherently dynamical systems—where everything influences everything else. Because of this, each simulation has a unique structure that mimics the same variability that we see emerging in our own climate system. When forced with anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the scenarios give us a likely indication of what to expect in the future.

The impact of these results extend far beyond a better understanding of the climate system. These results can be used to provide stability to uncertainty in the future agricultural industry and improve knowledge surrounding extreme events caused by flooding or droughts.