Climate Change Impacts on 21st Century Food and Water Security
A 2019 Program on Climate Change Summer Institute and Friday Harbor Symposium, 11-13 September 2019
Written by Becky Alexander, PCC Director and Atmospheric Sciences Professor
The PCC held another highly successful Summer Institute (SI) at Friday Harbor Labs from September 11-13, 2019 organized by Cecilia Bitz and David Battisti (both Atmospheric Sciences). The topic of this year’s SI was “Climate Change Impacts on 21st Century Food and Water Security”. The number of undernourished people has reached over 800 million, with the highest occurrence in regions where food availability is most threatened by expected future warming. A related problem is the influence of climate change on fresh water through direct effects on precipitation and evaporation and through altering storage in ice/snow and groundwater. The World Food Programme finds that climate change exacerbates undernourishment through effects on food availability, access, utilization, and stability. Population growth and increased demand for food is altering fresh water use and has created new demands for managing water supply and quality. The role of climate change on food and water is much more complex than predicting global or continental trends. The choices we make about food production and water supply in turn can influence climate change.
Nearly 80 people attended this year’s SI and contributed to highly stimulating and engaging discussions around several areas surrounding this interdisciplinary topic. Participants came from a variety of departments and units within the UW, including Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography, Earth and Space Sciences, the Evans School, Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Marine and Environmental Affairs, the Polar Science Center at the Applied Physics Lab, Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences, Chemistry, JISAO, Biology, Environmental and Forest Sciences, Public Health, and the Climate Impacts Group. We also hosted a number of outstanding speakers from outside the UW including Gidon Eschel from Bard College, Nathan Mueller from UC Irvine, Deepti Singh from Washington State University, Summer Rupper from the University of Utah, Brian Smoliak from Two Degrees Adapt, LLC, Michelle Tigchelaar from Stanford University, and Stanley Wood from the Gates Foundation. Other invited speakers included Gordon Holtgrieve (Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences), Soo-Hyung Kim (Environmental and Forest Sciences), Jan Newton (Applied Physics Lab), Bart Nijssen (Civil and Environmental Engineering), Abby Swann (Atmospheric Sciences and Biology). We particularly thank Vulcan for their financial support of this meeting and for their participation in the discussions.
The talks and discussions covered the following topics:
“Our Carbon Footprint and the Policy and Economics of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture” led by David Battisti (Atmospheric Sciences), Nathan Muller (UC Irvine) and Gidon Eschel (Bard College).
“Climate Change Impacts on Glaciers, Water and Marine Resources” led by Summer Rupper (University of Utah), Bart Nijssen (Civil and Environmental Engineering) and Jan Newton (Applied Physics Lab)
“How Food Crops Cope with Climate Change” led by Abby Swann (Atmospheric Sciences and Biology) and Soo-Hyung Kim (Environmental and Forest Sciences).
“Climate Impacts on Food Production” led by Michelle Tigchelaar (Stanford University) and Deepti Singh (Washington State University, Vancouver).
“Climate change Impacts on Marine Food and Planning for Change” led by Gordon Holtgrieve (Aquatic and Fishery Sciences), Stanley Wood (Gates Foundation), and Brian Smoliak (Two Degrees Adapt, LLC).
As temperature increases, crop yields decrease in the mid-latitudes where a large fraction of the world’s crops are grown. This combined with a growing population expected to reach nearly 10 billion by the year 2050 compounds the need to plan for the impacts of climate change on food and water resources. The best options are to adapt by changing the types of crops we grow, changing the timing of planting, and by changing diets to eat more plant-based food and less animal products. We also learned about the impact of climate change on glaciers and their ability to provide a buffer during dry seasons and droughts, and local changes in the timing of peak snow and streamflow in the Pacific Northwest. We spent time discussing the impact of climate change on aquaculture due to impacts of ocean acidification, ocean warming, and on freshwater resources. Although the latter only supplies about 10% of all fisheries, freshwater fisheries are very productive and supply a substantial fraction of protein for poorer countries of the world. The attendees learned that both individual and collective choices about the food we eat impacts our emissions and thus climate, and climate in turn will impact food production due to heat stress and changes in precipitation and water resources. Finally, we discussed the need to move away from either or thinking between mitigation and adaptation – we need to be doing both simultaneously.
This year Alex Stote led an exploration of what it would take to achieve a net-zero carbon emissions Summer Institute, and Friday Harbor Labs enthusiastically provided operations and food data. In her blog “After Counting Our Summer Institute Carbon Emissions—Now What?” Alex reflects on carbon offsets and the social cost of carbon.
Finally, a special thanks to Cecilia Bitz and David Battisti for organizing and Vulcan for financial support.
Stay tuned for news about the theme for next year’s SI to be held at Friday Harbor Labs from September 16-18, 2020.